Don't Be So Glib! - 06/11/10

On my recent appearance on "Fast Money," I was met by some convicted bulls and convicted bears.

Some formed their views technically, others fundamentally.

In the most recent instance (and at least for the last few days!), the bulls were very correct in view and the bears were very wrong.

I have long felt that in a world with so many uncertainties and numerous economic outcomes, a glib and certain investment and/or fundamental view is uncalled for.

The same can be said of a technical view, as the technical picture is blurred by new influences (most importantly, high-frequency trading strategies) that mess up and obscure those technical setups.

It is for these reasons that I almost always frame my views with the caveat that a sense of conviction is fine, but our investment world is far too complicated and unpredictable to have a high degree of confidence.

And it is for these reasons that in making investment and economic conclusions, I try to use the words "possibly," "might" and "likely" as opposed to "will" and "definitely."

Accordingly, I have consistently counseled that both traders and investors should have smaller positions and more diversified portfolios than what would have been typical over the past several decades.

So, in listening to strategists, money managers and talking heads in the business media and in reading the views of contributors on RealMoney (and elsewhere), run away from anyone who is certain -- and that most certainly includes me!