The Devil's in the Details - 12/14/09

	Update M SKS

New sampling methodology explains the divergence between reported retail strength and the weakness in tax data.

I, like many, was surprised in the strong retail sales release on Friday.

Perhaps this "new sampling" methodology (and wide sampling error) and message by the U.S. Census Bureau helps to explain the difference between the strength reported late last week and the weakness in private and state tax data. (Hat tip to Bill King.)

The strength of retail sales (issued in the government release) was in marked contrast to negative November comparisons issued by the International Council of Shopping Centers, poor results in selected stores such as Macy's (M) and Saks (SKS), year-over-year weakness in some of the largest states reporting sales taxes and even the releases from trade associations (e.g., ShopperTrak, which reported a national retail sales decline of 0.1% in November).